Market Report: Inflation, Iran, and Hopes for Peace
The recent days in the markets have been characterized by a balancing act between hard data from the US and a fragile geopolitical situation. Despite inflation returning to an upward trend, investors are ending the week in a moderately optimistic mood.
USA: Inflation Accelerates, but No Panic
BLS data confirmed that the conflict with Iran is leaving its mark on prices. Although growth momentum accelerated, the readings turned out slightly better than the market's worst-case scenarios:
- CPI (y/y): 3.3% (Forecast: 3.4%)
- Core CPI (y/y): 2.6% (Forecast: 2.7%)
The clear gap between the headline and core indicators shows that high prices are primarily driven by commodities rather than broad consumption. Fed's Mary Daly maintained hope for rate cuts, though conditioning them on a swift de-escalation in the Middle East.
Europe and Ukraine: Commodity Shadows and Diplomatic Signals
European indices are seeing cautious gains. Germany is grappling with its highest inflation since early 2024 (2.7% y/y), fueled by a 20% spike in fuel prices.
A positive impulse came from statements by Kyrylo Budanov and communications from the Kremlin, suggesting progress toward a potential peace agreement in Ukraine. On the other hand, US-China relations remain tense regarding Beijing's involvement in the Iranian issue.
Macro Calendar: What to Watch Next Week
The coming week will bring key production and sentiment data, revealing how economies are coping with rising energy costs.
| Day | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Monday (13.04) | Existing Home Sales (USA) | Consumer sentiment |
| Tuesday (14.04) | PPI Inflation (USA) and Employment Data (UK) | Producer price pressure |
| Wednesday (15.04) | Empire State Index (USA) and Industrial Production (Eurozone) | Health of the manufacturing sector |
| Thursday (16.04) | China GDP (Q1) and CPI Inflation (Eurozone - final) | Crucial for global sentiment |
| All Week | IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings | Comments on monetary policy |
Sentiment: We enter next week with cautious optimism. The market is betting that the "peak" of fuel tensions is behind us and that diplomacy (regarding both Ukraine and Iran) will prevail over military escalation.
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